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Geomagnetic activity forecasts

Overview

In late September 2026, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasted moderate geomagnetic activity. For September 26, the maximum expected three-hour planetary Kp index was 3.67, which was below the threshold for a G1 category geomagnetic storm.

By mid-October 2026, NOAA forecasted increased geomagnetic activity for October 14. The Space Weather Prediction Center expected the planetary Kp index to reach a maximum value of 4. Although this indicated elevated activity, it remained below the Kp 5 threshold required to classify a G1-category weak magnetic storm. Probabilities for that day included a 35% chance of active geomagnetic conditions and a 25% chance of a weak magnetic storm. Peak activity was anticipated between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC.

On October 17, NOAA indicated that no geomagnetic storm was forecast for October 18, 2026. The Kp-index was expected to remain at a low level of approximately 1.7. However, experts noted the possibility of solar flares, including a 25% probability of R1-R2 category radio disturbances.

For the week of October 19–25, 2026, geomagnetic activity fluctuated. A high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole caused a brief G1-category minor geomagnetic storm on October 22, reaching a Kp value of 4.67. Following this, NOAA forecasted calmer conditions for October 23 and 24, with Kp values expected to range between 1.00 and 2.67.

Looking toward the end of the month, NOAA and the SWPC issued forecasts for increased activity between October 23 and October 26. On October 25, the Kp index is expected to reach a maximum of 3.67, with peak activity predicted during two windows: 09:00 to 12:00 and 15:00 to 18:00 Bulgarian time. For October 26, activity is expected to remain elevated but at a lower intensity, with Kp predictions ranging from 2 to 2.7.

Entities

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Space Weather Prediction Center · NOAA · Earth · Sun

Timeline

  1. [TECHNOLOGY] 2 sources
    NOAA forecasts increased geomagnetic activity for late October 2026

    NOAA forecasts increased geomagnetic activity for October 25-26, 2026, with Kp index values reaching up to 3.67, remaining below the threshold for a G1-category magnetic storm.

  2. [TECHNOLOGY] 2 sources
    NOAA forecasts calm geomagnetic conditions for late October 2026

    NOAA forecasts calm geomagnetic activity for October 23-24, 2026, with Kp index values remaining well below the threshold for geomagnetic storms.

  3. [TECHNOLOGY] 2 sources
    Earth's magnetic activity forecast for October 19–25, 2026

    Geomagnetic activity is forecast to fluctuate between October 19 and 25, 2026, with Kp-index levels reaching 4 on several days, though no major G1-class storms are expected.

  4. [TECHNOLOGY] 2 sources
    NOAA forecasts no geomagnetic storm for October 18, 2026

    No geomagnetic storm is forecast for October 18, 2026, according to NOAA. However, there is a 25% chance of minor radio disturbances due to potential solar flares.

  5. [TECHNOLOGY] 3 sources
    NOAA forecasts increased geomagnetic activity for October 14, 2026

    NOAA forecasts increased geomagnetic activity for October 14, 2026, with a Kp index reaching 4, indicating elevated activity without reaching the threshold for a formal magnetic storm.

  6. [TECHNOLOGY] 4 sources
    NOAA forecasts moderate geomagnetic activity for late September 2026

    NOAA forecasts moderate geomagnetic activity for September 26, 2026, with Kp index values expected to remain below the G1 storm threshold despite a 40% chance of active conditions.

Sources

actualno.com · iskra.bg · it-bg.org · larotonde.ca · novini247.com · ruse.news · varna24.bg

This summary has been updated 4 times: see revision history